La depresión y el fantasma del autoritarismo
NUEVA YORK.- Ya es hora de que empecemos a llamar por su nombre a la situación actual: una depresión. Es cierto que no es una repetición a pleno de la Gran Depresión, pero ése es un pobre consuelo. El desempleo, tanto en Estados Unidos como en Europa, sigue siendo desastrosamente alto. Los líderes y las instituciones están cada vez más desacreditados. Y los valores democráticos están bajo un asedio.
No estoy siendo alarmista. El elevado índice de desempleo no está bien sólo porque no haya alcanzado los niveles de 1933, y las tendencias políticas ominosas no deben desestimarse simplemente porque no hay ningún Hitler a la vista.
Quiero que hablemos en particular de lo que está ocurriendo en Europa? no porque en Estados Unidos esté todo bien, sino porque la gravedad de los acontecimientos políticos europeos no se entiende en profundidad.
En primer lugar, la crisis del euro está matando el sueño europeo. La moneda común, que supuestamente debe acercar a las naciones, ha producido en cambio una atmósfera de resentimiento. Las demandas de medidas de austeridad cada vez más severas, sin ningún esfuerzo compensador destinado a estimular el crecimiento, han causado un doble daño. Han fracasado como política económica, empeorando el desempleo sin restituir la confianza. Ahora parece probable que toda Europa caiga en una recesión, aun cuando la amenaza inmediata de crisis financiera esté contenida. Y esas medidas han creado una inmensa furia, porque muchos europeos se han encolerizado por lo que se percibe como un duro ejercicio del poder por parte de Alemania.
Nadie que esté familiarizado con la historia de Europa puede ser testigo de este resurgimiento de la hostilidad sin experimentar un escalofrío. Sin embargo, pueden ocurrir cosas peores.
Los populistas de derecha están en ascenso en Austria, donde el Partido de la Libertad (cuyo líder solía tener relaciones neonazis) está cabeza a cabeza en las encuestas con los partidos tradicionales. Y en Finlandia, donde el partido antiinmigrantes Verdaderos Finlandeses tuvo un lucido desempeño electoral en abril. Y eso ocurre en países ricos cuyas economías se han mantenido bastante bien. Las cosas se ven aún más ominosas en las naciones más pobres de Europa Central y Europa Oriental.
El mes pasado, el Banco Europeo para la Reconstrucción y el Desarrollo documentó una aguda disminución del apoyo público a la democracia en los países «nuevos» de la Unión Europea, las naciones que se integraron a la Unión después de la caída del muro de Berlín. No resulta sorprendente que la pérdida de fe en la democracia haya sido más grande en los países que sufrieron la más profunda recesión económica. Y al menos en una nación, Hungría, las instituciones democráticas están siendo socavadas.
Uno de los partidos políticos más importantes de Hungría, el Jobbik, es una pesadilla salida de la década de 1930: es antisemita e incluso posee un brazo paramilitar. Pero la amenaza inmediata proviene del Fidesz, el partido gobernante, de centroderecha. El Fidesz ganó una mayoría parlamentaria el año pasado, al menos en parte debido a razones económicas. Hungría no adoptó el euro, pero sufrió de manera severa debido a los préstamos en gran escala en monedas extranjeras y también gracias a la mala administración y la corrupción de los partidos liberales de izquierda que ocupaban en ese momento el gobierno. Ahora el Fidesz, que hace unos meses impuso modificaciones a la Constitución, parece decidido a aferrarse permanentemente al poder.
Según Kim Lane Scheppele, directora del programa de Leyes y Asuntos Públicos de Princeton -y que ha estado siguiendo de cerca la situación húngara-, el Fidesz está adoptando una serie de medidas para eliminar a la oposición. Además, la independencia judicial ha sido limitada y se ejerce represión sobre los medios independientes. Esto equivale al restablecimiento de un régimen autoritario, apenas encubierto por una delgada capa decorativa de democracia, en el corazón de Europa. Y es una muestra de lo que puede ocurrir en otras naciones si esta depresión continúa.
No resulta claro qué puede hacerse con la caída de Hungría en el autoritarismo. Estados Unidos ha seguido con atención el caso, pero se trata de un asunto esencialmente europeo. La UE perdió la oportunidad de evitar este acaparamiento del poder en parte porque la nueva Constitución entró en vigor mientras Hungría estaba a cargo de la presidencia rotativa de la Unión. Ahora resultará mucho más difícil revertir la situación. Sin embargo, será mejor que los líderes europeos lo intenten. Y también deben repensar sus fracasadas políticas económicas. Si no lo hacen, habrá más abandono de los valores democráticos? y en ese caso la disolución del euro será la menor de sus preocupaciones.
Por Paul Krugman
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әзірлеушілерінің ресми бағдарламалық жасақтамасы бар екенін атап
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Как в остальных онлайн казино,
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