NUEVA CATÁSTROFE ECONÓMICA: ¿DÓNDE Y CÓMO?
Durante los últimos dos años el mundo se sumergió en un período de tinieblas económicas. El futuro tampoco inspira optimismo y abre un gran interrogante: ¿En qué lugares recrudecerá la crisis económica? El portal económico RBC elaboró una lista de posibles ‘focos infecciosos’ que harán pedazos la economía mundial.
1. Grecia, en la cuerda floja
Las últimas películas económicas hablan del posible incumplimiento de Grecia y su posterior salida de la zona euro. El país lleva tres años luchando para reducir su deuda, pero con poco éxito.
Según el economista jefe de Finnam Management, A. Osin, la retirada no es favorable ni para Grecia ni para la Unión Europea. «Si nos fijamos en el largo plazo, entonces, aunque Grecia, España e Italia dejen la zona euro, buscarán otras alianzas. Y las encontrarán. O volverán a la misma UE en las peores condiciones. Individualmente será muy difícil permanecer a flote en una situación en la que otras economías son más flexibles y poderosas», dijo el experto.
2. La contribución de España e Italia
No solo Grecia afecta la vida de la zona euro sino España e Italia que se enfrentan con el aumento del costo de los préstamos. La UE se convirtió en objeto de un aluvión de rebajas de calificaciones crediticias.
El analista de Alfa Bank, Dmitri Dolguin, destaca que en la actualidad se estudia la posibilidad de dividir la zona en varios bloques. «Si no hay algún acuerdo entre los países periféricos acerca de la crisis de deuda, a continuación, es posible que la salida de la zona euro sea para los países periféricos un escenario más atractivo que estar en ella», resumió.
3. La amenaza iraní
La ‘primavera árabe’ colocó los ojos del mundo en África y Medio Oriente, donde se encuentran los principales exportadores de petróleo: Arabia Saudita, Emiratos Árabes Unidos, Irán, Irak y Qatar. Las tensiones en la región durante todo el año provocaron un alza del precio de los hidrocarburos del 45%.
Incluso un año después, la situación en la región no se normalizó. Irán con su programa nuclear echa más leña al fuego. Y la situación da lugar a dos tendencias contradictorias.
«Por un lado, las tensiones provocan temores acerca de la reducción del suministro de petróleo, un factor de crecimiento de los precios del crudo. Pero, por otro lado, si esta tensión se transforma en una guerra a gran escala, en estas condiciones todos los capitales financieros huirán hacia activos más seguros; en este caso, el dólar», dijo el analista de Alfa Bank, Dmitri Dolguin, agregando que en caso de guerra los costos del petróleo superarán la marca de 200 dólares por barril.
4. Estancamiento de los países desarrollados
La necesidad de abordar problemas económicos y sociales en los países desarrollados puede detener el crecimiento en la mayoría de las principales economías. Un período de recesión de entre 10 y 15 años es otra posibilidad.
De acuerdo con el analista de Alfa Bank, este riesgo debe ser considerado como el escenario de referencia para el desarrollo futuro.
Las recesiones, como todo en la economía, se producen cíclicamente. Esta es una de las etapas entre la bonanza económica y la crisis. El declive se manifiesta en la caída de la capacidad de producción, del producto nacional bruto y producto interno bruto. Los indicadores caen durante un período muy largo y son acompañados por el aumento del desempleo, la inflación y la disminución de los índices bursátiles.
La posibilidad de una recesión prolongada queda en evidencia a raíz de la posición de la industria en EE. UU., Reino Unido, China y Japón, afirma el analista jefe de fondo gestión de inversiones y apoyo analítico Solid, Artur Ajmétov.
5. La capitulación bancaria
La amenaza de una escasez de liquidez se cierne no solo sobre Europa sino sobre el resto del mundo, debido a problemas con la deuda y la depreciación de la moneda única. La situación es similar a la que todo el mundo observó a finales de 2008, indican los expertos.
En el largo plazo es probable que estalle una crisis de liquidez estimulada por el apoyo excesivo de la comunidad internacional a los países con problemas, destacó el analista jefe de fondo gestión de inversiones y apoyo analítico Solid, Artur Ajmétov.
La situación se agrava por el hecho de que en 2012 se celebran elecciones presidenciales en muchos países (EE. UU., Rusia, Francia), así como la agudización del clima de conflictos en Medio Oriente.
6. Desaceleración del crecimiento de China
Años de crisis que afectaron a las antiguas potencias económicas, le proporcionaron a China la posibilidad de dar el salto económico. Pero, últimamente, los expertos empezaron a hablar de la ralentización de la segunda economía del mundo.
El reciente informe del Banco Mundial titulado ‘China 2030: La construcción de una sociedad moderna, armónica y altamente rentable’ señala que para sostener el crecimiento económico de Pekín hay que realizar una serie de reformas, incluyendo la reducción de la participación del Estado en la economía.
La denominada ‘fábrica del mundo’ sigue trabajando. Sin embargo, los compradores europeos se ven obligados a aprender a ahorrar, lo que reduce la actividad en el sector manufacturero y, por tanto, provoca un menor consumo de metales y recursos energéticos de China.
La reacción en cadena en el contexto de la caída de la producción china también podría ser un buen tema para el autor de una novela de suspenso: ‘La segunda ola de crisis’.
7. La deuda de EE.UU.
A mediados del año pasado, todo el mundo esperaba el ‘apocalipsis económico’; es decir, que EE. UU. declarara la cesación de pagos.
Para hacer frente a las tormentas financieras, EE. UU. cuenta con la Reserva Federal, que imprime la moneda. «Toda la deuda de EE. UU. está denominada en dólares estadounidenses y el país siempre tiene la capacidad de imprimir más moneda para pagar la deuda», indicó el economista de Troika Dialog, Anton Struchenevski.
Así, hasta que aparezca una moneda viable, una buena alternativa para el dólar, este escenario representan para los expertos nada más que una parte de una película de ciencia ficción, pero todo cambia y el yuan le pisa los talones.
Artículo completo en:http://actualidad.rt.com/economia/global/issue_36913.html
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Would you be all in favour of exchanging hyperlinks?
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