El ‘Doctor Catástrofe’ apuesta por el oro

El inversionista suizo Marc Faber predice un colapso financiero total dentro de 5 años

La situación financiera en el mundo es lo que parece a primera vista: un desastre. Y todo podría ir a peor. Es lo que opina el editor del boletín informativo Gloom Boom Doom, el inversionista suizo Marc Faber, conocido como ‘Doctor Catástrofe’.

La economía mundial se ha desacelerado mucho, no existe una solución para Europa y EE. UU. no podrá hacer frente al déficit del presupuesto federal. La economía china también podría frenarse drásticamente en cualquier momento, lo que afectará a los socios comerciales del país y a los precios de las materias primas. La caída de demanda por la materia prima, a su vez, dañará mucho a países como Argentina, Brasil o Rusia. Este es el cuadro apocalíptico que el inversionista dibujó para la revista Barron.

Para Faber, los planes proclamados de EE. UU. de recortar gastos gubernamentales son poco realistas. Predice que, independientemente de los resultados de las elecciones en el país permanecerá en un futuro próximo el déficit por encima de un billón de dólares.
La zona euro no tiene futuro ya que nadie quiere implementar medidas de austeridad estricta, según el economista. Opina que para Grecia la única salida posible es abandonar la moneda única, pero predice que en este caso el nuevo dracma caería en entre un 50% y un 70% respecto al euro. Con lo cual, los griegos están entre dos fuegos. Por un lado, no quieren recibir salarios y pensiones en una moneda que irá perdiendo su valor. Por otro lado, están en contra del paquete de ajustes, ya que eso está reduciendo sus ingresos en dos veces.
En una gran parte la crisis se debe a lo que los gobiernos han crecido demasiado, explica el inversionista. Es el sector privado que impulsa el desarrollo económico. Cuando el sector estatal llega a un 40%, un 50% o un 60% de la economía, esta deja de funcionar bien. Otro problema es que desde 2009 el número de acciones en el mundo se ha duplicado, pero la economía no ha podido ser igual de rápida, con lo cual (y gracias a la suavización de ciertas restricciones cuantitativas que existían anteriormente) los flujos monetarios se concentraron en manos de un grupo reducido de gente. Dentro de un tiempo esto tendrá consecuencias negativas, empeorando aún más la situación: el sistema financiero mundial tardará unos 3 o 5 años a partir de ahora en llegar a su momento más duro, advierte Faber.
Invertir en acciones y obligaciones no ayudará a salvar el capital, asegura el ‘Doctor Catástrofe’. EE. UU. puede imprimir dinero, por eso sus valores seguirán proporcionando un ingreso, pero no traerán más de un 1,6% al año, mientras que la vida se encarece en, al menos, un 5% anualmente. Por ello, Faber concluye que la inversión más segura es el oro y las acciones de las compañías que lo extraen.

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