Economía ficción: ¿hacia una Segunda Depresión y una guerra entre China y EE. UU.?
El economista Dani Rodrik predice la debacle económica mundial
Según la hipótesis de Dani Rodrik, el comienzo del fin de la eurozona será la renegociación de los términos del acuerdo de Grecia con el FMI y la UE tras las elecciones helenas. La canciller alemana, Angela Merkel, sigue en sus trece y dice que Grecia debe cumplir con las condiciones de austeridad. Epicentro griego Ante el temor de un colapso financiero inminente, los depositantes griegos corren hacia la puerta de salida. Esta vez, el Banco Central Europeo se niega a acudir al rescate y los bancos griegos están hambrientos de dinero en efectivo. En resultado, el gobierno de Grecia se ve obligado a emitir dracmas a fin de garantizar la liquidez interna. Con Grecia fuera de la zona euro, todos los ojos se vuelven hacia España. Durante varios meses el esquema de su rescate se parece al modelo griego: promesas de ayuda, nuevos recortes fiscales y reformas estructurales. España, segunda pieza del dominó Sin embargo, la economía española se sigue deteriorando y se dirige hacia una cifra de desempleo del 30%. Violentas protestas contra las medidas de austeridad de Mariano Rajoy le obligan a convocar un referéndum. Su gobierno no logra obtener el apoyo necesario de los electores y dimite, dejando al país sumido en el caos político. Merkel corta el apoyo a España, diciendo que los contribuyentes alemanes que trabajan duro ya han hecho lo suficiente. La crisis bancaria acentúa la crisis financiera y la salida de la zona euro. A medida que la realidad de la disolución parcial de zona del euro se concreta, la crisis financiera se extiende desde Europa a EE. UU. y Asia. Mitt Romney declara una guerra a China Según el escenario que imagina Rodrik, EE .UU. asume la presidencia el republicano Mitt Romney, que recriminaba a Barack Obama su blandura ante China. En ese momento el contagio financiero de Europa, que ya ha desembocado en una serie de bancarrotas y una oleada de importaciones a bajo precio procedentes de China, deja a la administración de Romney en un aprieto. Haciendo oídos sordos al consejo de sus asesores económicos, introduce aranceles de importación a las exportaciones chinas. Sus partidarios del Tea Party, que le dieron su apoyo electoral, le exhortan a ir más allá y retirarse de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC). La lucha económica entre EE. UU. y China degenera en un conflicto militar, con enfrentamientos navales cada vez más frecuentes en el Mar de la China Meridiоnal, lo que amenaza con desembocar en una guerra a gran escala. Hacia una Segunda Gran Depresión En los próximos años, la economía mundial se desploma en una Segunda Gran Depresión. El desempleo se eleva a niveles récord. Los gobiernos carecen de recursos y tienen que recurrir a la protección del comercio y la depreciación del tipo de cambio competitivo, lo que exacerba aún más los problemas. Pocos países se libran de la carnicería económica. Aquellos que lo consigan en cierta medida tendrán tres características en común: niveles bajos de deuda pública, dependencia limitada de las exportaciones o de los flujos de capital, y solidez de las instituciones democráticas. Así pues, Brasil e India serán una especie de paraísos relativos, pese a que sus perspectivas de crecimiento se ven disminuidas. Para los países vecinos, Europa ya no brilla como un faro de la democracia, mientras que Oriente Medio da un giro decisivo hacia los estados islámicos autoritarios. El nacionalismo barre a los inmigrantes El colapso de la zona euro provoca una importante realineación de la política europea. Francia y Alemania compiten abiertamente como centros alternativos de influencia con los estados europeos más pequeños. Los partidos de centro pagan el precio por su apoyo al proyecto de integración europea, y se ven repudiados en las urnas por los partidos de la extrema derecha o extrema izquierda. Los gobiernos nacionalistas comienzan a expulsar a los inmigrantes. «¿Un escenario remoto? Tal vez, pero no lo suficientemente remoto», concluye Rodrick.
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