El vínculo del MIT: las reuniones secretas de los bancos centrales que dirigen el mundo

By admin 12 años ago

El desarrollo de la crisis ha obligado a los bancos centrales a improvisar en muchos momentos la táctica a seguir. Su estrategia monetaria no se encuentra en los libros de economía y ciertas decisiones se han convertido en auténticos experimentos de alto riesgo. Cada dos meses más de una docena de banqueros se reúne los domingos por la tarde en Basilea para analizar los pasos a seguir.

Sus conversaciones giran en torno a temas económicos y monetarios, más que académicos. Alrededor de la mesa, los jefes de los mayores bancos centrales del mundo, que representan a países con un PIB conjunto de 51 billones de dólares, tres cuartas partes de la producción económica mundial.

 

En los últimos meses estas conversaciones, ahora no tan secretas, se han centrado en los problemas económicos mundiales y las medidas agresivas de los bancos centrales para manejar sus economías, según recoge The Wall Street Journal. Desde 2007, los bancos centrales han inundado el sistema financiero mundial con más de 11 billones de dólares. Y todavía planean inyectar miles de millones más en bonos del gobierno e hipotecarios en un contexto de débil recuperación.

Sin un modelo a seguir, muchos de esos experimentos de alto riesgo emprendidos se basan, en parte, en el trabajo académico realizado por algunos de los hombres que han estudiado y enseñado en el Instituto de Tecnología de Massachussets (MIT) en la década de 1970 y 1980.

Tres de los presidentes de los bancos centrales más poderosos del mundo iniciaron sus carreras en un edificio conocido como «E52», sede del departamento de economía del MIT. Ben Bernanke, presidente de la Fed, y Mario Draghi, presidente del BCE, obtuvieron allí su doctorado en la década de los 70. Mervyn King, gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra, impartió clases en los 80 y compartió una oficina con Bernanke.

Muchos economistas salieron del MIT con la creencia de que el gobierno podía ayudar a atenuar los bajones económicos. Los bancos centrales juegan un papel particularmente importante desde este punto de vista, no sólo mediante el uso de las tasas de interés, sino también al tratar de influir en las expectativas de las personas a través de declaraciones cuidadosamente redactadas.

Mientras que muchos gobiernos nacionales no han logrado ponerse de acuerdo sobre la política fiscal, los bancos centrales han forjado su propio camino, unidos por conversaciones frecuentes y relaciones personales que se remontan a los días en que estudiaban economía.

Si aciertan, la economía mundial podría eludir un prolongado estancamiento. En cambio, si se equivocan, podrían generar presiones inflacionarias o sentar las bases de una nueva crisis financiera. Un fracaso también podría dar lugar a nuevas restricciones sobre el poder y la independencia de los bancos centrales, herramientas consideradas esenciales en emergencias como la crisis financiera de 2008 y 2009.

Las acciones de los bancos centrales

La Reserva Federal de EEUU compra al mes actualmente 40.000 millones en valores respaldados por hipotecas y parece decidida en su reunión de este miércoles en anunciar el gasto de miles de millones más en bonos del Tesoro. El Banco de Inglaterra ha acordado canalizar miles de millones de libras a empresas y hogares a través de los bancos. El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) se ha comprometido a mantener bajos los costes de endeudamiento de los gobiernos que soliciten ayuda y el Banco de Japón, bajo presión para combatir la deflación, está comprando bonos estatales, deuda corporativa y acciones.

«¿Decidirá la historia si hicieron mucho o muy poco? No lo sabemos porque es algo que todavía está en evolución», sostiene Kenneth Rogoff, profesor de economía de la Universidad de Harvard. «Están asumiendo riesgos porque es una estrategia experimental», apunta el WSJ.

El aviso de Caruana

El objetivo es reducir el costo del crédito y estimular las bolsas en un intento por fomentar el gasto y la inversión de los hogares y las empresas. El método, sin embargo, no se ha probado a escala global y los banqueros centrales se han reunido a menudo para evaluar los riesgos.

Un día después de la cena de junio en Basilea, los banqueros centrales recibieron la advertencia de uno de sus anfitriones en un discurso ante el grupo. «Estas medidas de emergencia podrían tener efectos indeseados si persisten por mucho tiempo», dijo Jaime Caruana, director general del Banco Internacional de Pagos (BIS, por sus siglas en inglés), donde se celebran las cenas.

Otra preocupación: reforzar los mercados de valores y relajar los costes de endudamiento puede conducir a los gobiernos nacionales a postergar decisiones políticas complicada para solucionar sus propios problemas, como el déficit público.

«Los bancos centrales no pueden resolver los problemas estructurales de la economía», señala Stephen Cecchetti, que dirige el departamento monetario del BIS. «Hemos estado diciendo esto durante años».

Los bancos centrales han prometido que una vez que la economía se recupere, van a cerrar el grifo lo suficientemente rápido para impedir que aparezcan presiones inflacionarias. Pero retirar tanto dinero del mercado en el momento preciso podría ser un desafío político y económico.

Los banqueros centrales, aislados

Los banqueros centrales están entre las personas más aisladas de un gobierno. Si se reúnen con mucha frecuencia con los banqueros privados, corren el riesgo de desestabilizar a los mercados o dar a los operadores una ventaja injusta. Asimismo, tratan de mantenerse a distancia de los políticos para preservar su independencia.

Entre los invitados a las cenas dominicales en Basilea figuran los líderes de la Fed, el BCE, el Banco de Inglaterra y los responsables de los bancos centrales de India, China, México, Brasil y otros países, explica el Wall Street Journal.

King, el gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra, es quien lleva la batuta en las conversaciones. Los hombres tienen sus asientos asignados en una mesa redonda en un comedor de paredes blancas, techo negro y una vista panorámica de la ciudad. No hay transcripciones ni minutas.

En momentos en que lidian con dudas y desacuerdos sobre la reactivación de la economía global, forman una estrecha fraternidad. Sus relaciones se desarrollan a través de conversaciones telefónicas y en persona. «Un gran secreto de la cooperación entre los bancos centrales», dice King, es que en una crisis «uno puede tomar un teléfono y tener muy rápido acuerdo sobre algo».

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  355. I urge you steer clear of this site. My own encounter with it has been only frustration along with concerns regarding fraudulent activities. Proceed with extreme caution, or even better, look for an honest site for your needs.

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  356. I highly advise stay away from this platform. The experience I had with it was nothing but disappointment as well as concerns regarding fraudulent activities. Be extremely cautious, or better yet, seek out a more reputable platform to meet your needs.

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  360. I urge you to avoid this platform. The experience I had with it was only dismay and doubts about fraudulent activities. Be extremely cautious, or even better, find an honest site to fulfill your requirements.

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  361. I strongly recommend stay away from this platform. My own encounter with it was only disappointment and concerns regarding fraudulent activities. Be extremely cautious, or even better, seek out an honest site to meet your needs.

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  365. I strongly recommend stay away from this site. My own encounter with it has been only frustration as well as concerns regarding fraudulent activities. Proceed with extreme caution, or even better, look for a trustworthy service to meet your needs.

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  366. I highly advise to avoid this platform. My own encounter with it was purely disappointment along with concerns regarding deceptive behavior. Exercise extreme caution, or alternatively, seek out an honest site to meet your needs.

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  372. I strongly recommend to avoid this site. My own encounter with it was nothing but dismay along with suspicion of fraudulent activities. Be extremely cautious, or alternatively, look for a more reputable service to meet your needs.

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  373. I urge you to avoid this platform. My own encounter with it has been nothing but disappointment and concerns regarding scamming practices. Proceed with extreme caution, or better yet, find an honest service to fulfill your requirements.

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  374. I highly advise steer clear of this platform. My personal experience with it has been only dismay and suspicion of deceptive behavior. Exercise extreme caution, or even better, find an honest service to meet your needs.

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  375. I urge you stay away from this platform. The experience I had with it was only frustration as well as concerns regarding deceptive behavior. Proceed with extreme caution, or alternatively, find a more reputable service to fulfill your requirements.

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  382. I strongly recommend steer clear of this site. My personal experience with it was nothing but disappointment along with suspicion of deceptive behavior. Be extremely cautious, or alternatively, look for a trustworthy service to fulfill your requirements.

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  383. I urge you to avoid this site. My personal experience with it was nothing but disappointment along with suspicion of deceptive behavior. Be extremely cautious, or even better, seek out an honest site for your needs.

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  384. I urge you stay away from this site. My own encounter with it has been nothing but disappointment and doubts about fraudulent activities. Be extremely cautious, or alternatively, find a trustworthy platform to fulfill your requirements.

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  385. I urge you steer clear of this site. My own encounter with it was only frustration along with doubts about fraudulent activities. Be extremely cautious, or better yet, seek out a trustworthy service for your needs.

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  386. I highly advise stay away from this site. My personal experience with it was only dismay and doubts about scamming practices. Be extremely cautious, or better yet, find a trustworthy service to meet your needs.

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  387. I highly advise to avoid this site. My personal experience with it has been purely dismay as well as concerns regarding fraudulent activities. Be extremely cautious, or even better, seek out an honest service to fulfill your requirements.

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  392. I highly advise to avoid this site. My personal experience with it has been purely frustration along with suspicion of scamming practices. Be extremely cautious, or better yet, look for an honest site to fulfill your requirements.

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  393. I urge you steer clear of this platform. My own encounter with it has been purely disappointment as well as suspicion of scamming practices. Exercise extreme caution, or even better, seek out a more reputable platform to fulfill your requirements.

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