Reseteo del sistema financiero mundial: se acaba el dinero-deuda para retornar al patrón oro
A lo largo de la geografía y de la historia muchos bienes han sido usados como medios de pago: vacas, conchas, sal, tabaco, diversos metales, pero el más utilizado y apreciado ha sido el oro, debido a que es un bien duradero, divisible, homogéneo y difícil de falsificar, características que lo convirtieron fácilmente en moneda de cambio generalmente aceptada. No obstante, en la práctica la moneda fraccionaria más utilizada en la historia ha sido la plata, pero el valor de referencia era el oro, en lo que se conoce como ´patrón oro´.
Uno de los problemas de los metales como moneda fue su peso, por lo que pronto se hicieron comunes los billetes, que surgieron como promesas firmadas de entregar a su portador la cantidad en oro que en ellos se indicaba (recuerdo le billete azul de 1 peso oro que circuló en Colombia). Los bancos emitían estos billetes cuidándose de mantener un equilibrio entre el dinero que habían emitido y sus reservas de oro. Podemos decir entonces que el patrón oro es un sistema monetario que fija el valor de la unidad monetaria en relación con una determinada cantidad de oro, porque el emisor garantiza que pueda dar al poseedor de sus billetes la cantidad de oro consignada en ellos.
Posteriormente, los gobiernos sintieron dificultades para controlar (manipular, en todo el sentido de la palabra) la oferta monetaria mediante el uso de un patrón oro, y en 1971 se abandona por completo, aduciendo, falta de flexibilidad en la política monetaria.
Moneda fiduciaria
Históricamente, el patrón oro imperó durante el siglo XIX como base del sistema financiero internacional y empezó a perder importancia con la Primera Mundial, debido a que los gobiernos de los países en contienda[1] necesitaron imprimir mucho dinero fiduciario para financiar el esfuerzo bélico, sin tener el respaldo de riqueza en oro.
Luego de la segunda Guerra Mundial, durante los Acuerdos de Bretton Woods[2], se decidió adoptar el dólar estadounidense como divisa internacional, bajo la condición de que la Reserva Federal norteamericana sostuviera el patrón oro. Pero a partir de 1971, se abandona definitivamente el patrón oro y el valor del dólar pasa a sostenerse únicamente con base en la confianza de sus poseedores.
De esta manera el único límite para la creación de dinero mediante la promesa de pagarlo es el dinero preexistente. Por tanto, dado que el dinero se crea de cero con una deuda igual, el pago de todas las deudas supondría la desaparición de éste. Sin embargo, los intereses hacen que la deuda total sea mayor que el préstamo, por lo que es imposible, con el sistema monetario actual, que la totalidad de las deudas sean pagadas. Es decir, las deudas son el soporte del sistema (Es lo que se conoce como dinero-deuda).
El sistema implementado se basa en el supuesto de que los depositantes no suelen reclamar todos sus depósitos al mismo tiempo, ni tampoco todos los prestamistas están tomando créditos al mismo tiempo, ni todos los deudores están pagando al mismo tiempo. Cuando los bancos prestan cualquier fracción de los fondos recibidos en depósito o, en general, cuando conceden créditos por un valor superior a sus depósitos, lo que se hace es generar un interés, por lo que el sistema expande la cantidad de dinero en circulación, mediante nuevos préstamos hipotecarios o de consumo (dinero-deuda).[3]
Lo cierto es que el abandono total del patrón oro ha generado un crecimiento enorme de la oferta monetaria mundial, muy superior al crecimiento total de los bienes y servicios que la sociedad es capaz de producir, lo que a su vez genera inflación, en muchos casos hiperinflación, acompañada de una fuerte devaluación de la moneda.
Debido a estos problemas el patrón oro sigue teniendo sus defensores, entre los que se destaca la Escuela Austriaca de Economía[4], que aboga por la supresión de los bancos centrales y del monopolio de los gobiernos como organismos encargados de acuñar la moneda de curso legal y completamente ajena al patrón oro. Según esta escuela de pensamiento, cualquier puesta en circulación de nuevos medios fiduciarios y la manipulación de los tipos de interés -por parte de gobiernos y bancos centrales- producen periodos de auge en la actividad económica, que acaban conduciendo a una asignación errónea de los recursos y una vez cesa la emisión del nuevo dinero con la subida de los tipos de interés, se producen inevitablemente burbujas creadas artificialmente con dinero que no es fruto del ahorro real, sino de préstamos sin respaldo de ahorro previo.
Debido a estos problemas muchos países, liderados por China, están impulsando un retorno al patrón oro, lo cual implica un reseteo del sistema financiero internacional imperante desde la década del 70 del siglo pasado.
Inicio del reseteo
Un reseteo (reinicio) sin precedentes está a punto de producirse en el mercado financiero mundial, o de hecho ha empezado a gestarse ya, al juzgar por ciertos movimientos trascendentales.
En los últimos meses grandes fondos de inversiones, gobiernos y bancos centrales han estado comprando y almacenando secretamente oro físico en anticipación de un evento que dejará el dólar estadounidense sin valor. Incluso, gobiernos de todo el mundo se están preparando para un nuevo mecanismo global de divisas, según lo advierte Keith Neumeyer[5], un experto en el campo de la minería y los metales preciosos.
Pero antes de que esto suceda, según Neumeyer, los acreedores extranjeros se desharán de su deuda en dólares de Estados Unidos, algo que en gran medida ya está sucediendo en este momento y que se evidencia en la creciente fortaleza del dólar estadounidense[6]. Cuando estos tenedores de deuda de Estados Unidos se deshagan de esa deuda, el dólar volverá a caer, causando con ello un realineamiento financiero, económico y monetario globales de enormes consecuencias. El papel de China es fundamental, ya que tiene en su poder alrededor del 90% de los bonos del tesoro de Estados Unidos
De acuerdo con Neumeyer[7], parece como si hubiera algún tipo de acuerdo secreto entre todos los bancos centrales y es por esa razón que estamos viendo a los gobiernos acumulando tanto oro, porfuera del sistema, al margen de los mercados. Si Neumeyer está en lo cierto -y muchas señales sugieren que su análisis es correcto- entonces la fortaleza del dólar será de corta duración.
Una vez que el des-apalancamiento de los gobiernos y los bancos centrales se haya completado, se va a desatar una gran tormenta económica, financiera y monetaria que va a cambiar por completo la estructura del orden global.
De acuerdo con Max Keiser[8], son tres las causas de esta crisis que conducirá al reseteo o reinicio del sistema monetario o financiero: el control de las divisas, las agencias de calificación de la deuda (que dicen lo que tiene riesgo y lo que no), y el cambio de las leyes sobre las que opera el conjunto del sistema. Keiser se refiere expresamente al ex primer ministro francés Dominique de Villepin, como uno de los artífices de una Nueva Agencia de calificación de riesgo global, en la que también están los chinos y los rusos, que es una de las bases del nuevo sistema.
La oficialización del reseteo -según se acaba de acordar- se producirá en octubre de 2016, cuando finalmente el FMI adopte la moneda china. Para evitar traumatismos, durante estos 11 meses los diferentes bancos centrales de todos los países harán acopio del renmibi chino y de oro (seguramente, en la forma del pago para infraestructuras del propio Banco de Infraestructuras del BRICS[9]).
Otros pasos hacia el reseteo
La semana pasada China firmó acuerdos con 16 países del centro y del este de Europa, englobados en las siglas ECO, que los liga a las iniciativas de la Ruta de la Seda y la Franja: los proyectos de desarrollo que van a financiar los BRICS.
Establecida en 2012 en Varsovia, capital de Polonia, y con un gran impulso tras la tercera reunión de líderes China-ECO, la plataforma de cooperación, que ahora sirve de motor para la recuperación económica de esos países europeos, ha sido muy bien acogida. La cuarta reunión de líderes de China y 16 países de ECO se celebró los días martes y miércoles de la semana pasada en la ciudad china de Suzhou bajo el lema «Nuevo comienzo, nuevos campos, nueva visión». Los países de ECO que participaron en el cónclave de este año son Albania, Bosnia y Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croacia, República Checa, Estonia, Hungría, Letonia, Lituania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Polonia, Rumanía, Serbia, Eslovaquia y Eslovenia.
La cooperación agrícola entre ambas partes tiene gran porvenir, pues el mercado chino ofrece una enorme oportunidad para los agricultores europeos en crisis. En China existe una demanda de productos agrícolas de esas naciones europeas que, a su vez, tienen la oportunidad de ofrecer a los consumidores chinos productos de calidad.
Este año, la cumbre de China y ECO debatió sobre asuntos de diferentes campos, incluyendo no sólo la creciente cooperación económica, sino también proyectos culturales, académicos, de defensa y relacionados con la diplomacia, lo cual -se estima- fortalecerá más los lazos de cooperación y dará valor adicional al formato «16+1», como se conoce la alianza.
Lo que se viene para el 2016
El acuerdo firmado la semana pasada entre los 16 países del centro y el este de Europa con China, puede significar -ni más ni menos- que la Unión Europea está comenzando a ser absorbida por el BRICS. Lo que va a ocurrir -o está pasando ya- es que decenas de países accederán a recursos expresados en forma de préstamos sin interés por parte de China; ello les posibilitará capitalizar su moneda para que, cuando el gobierno chino decida avalarla con el oro, todos los países puedan hacer lo propio.
El FMI acaba de admitir la divisa china, pero precisa que la medida no será efectiva hasta octubre del 2016. Eso significa que el reseteo está comenzado y se materializará en los siguientes meses, lo que permitirá que el dinero volverá a fluir por el planeta, generando comercio y economía. Lo que beneficiará a todos los países -obviamente, mejor a los países que se adhieran al BRICS-.
Analistas estiman que el próximo año la divisa china adquirirá como mínimo entre un 20% y un 25% del mercado internacional y un buen número de países decretarán el retorno al patrón oro, lo que provocará unas pocas semanas de inestabilidad en los países que no lo secunden, lo que puede llevar incluso a la caída de sus gobiernos, porque quien no cambie al oro, quedará excluido de la corriente del comercio internacional.
Lo que se ve para el próximo año es que el patrón oro se implante a través del comercio y, por ello, las grandes compañías transnacionales irán entrando en suspensión de pagos porque sus petro-dólares dejarán de ser admitidos como moneda en muchos países. Ello conducirá a que los bancos que les prestan dinero -y de los que son accionistas esas mismas empresas-, caerán con ellos, siendo rescatados por el BRICS.
[1] Alemania, Imperio Austro-húngaro e Italia en un bando, y Reino Unido, Francia y el Imperio ruso en el otro.
[2] Los acuerdos de Bretton Woods son las resoluciones de la conferencia monetaria y financiera de las Naciones Unidas, cumplida entre el 1 y el 22 de julio de 1944 en el complejo hotelero de Bretton Woods (Nueva Hampshire, Estados Unidos). Disponible en “Bretton Woods. Un nuevo arreglo institucional: El Blog de Finanzas y Dinero (HTLM). Consultado el 30 de noviembre de 2015.
[3] Por tal razón, por lo general, el agregado monetario de un país es generalmente mayor que su base monetaria.
[4] También denominada Escuela de Viena, deriva su nombre de la identidad de sus fundadores y primeros partidarios, quienes eran ciudadanos del Imperio austro-húngaro. La escuela austriaca fue una de las tres corrientes fundadoras de la revolución marginalista de los años 1870, cuya principal contribución fue la introducción del enfoque marginalista a la economía.
[5] En 2002 fundó la firma First Majestic, que produce y vende sus propias rondas de lingotes y barras de oro.
[6] En relación con el peso colombiano, desde hace varias semanas se ubicó en el tope de los $3.000 por dólar.
[7] Ver: http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/a-global-financial-reset-is-coming-a-deal-is-being-made-between-all-the-central-banks_04052015
[8] Periodista, cineasta y ex corredor de bolsa estadounidense. Junto a Stacy Herbert es anfitrión del programa financiero Keiser Report.
[9] Grupo de países conformado inicialmente por Brasil, India, China, Rusia y Sudáfrica, al que han vendido adhiriendo otros países.
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