vuelta de la peseta
REPORTAJE: Europa convulsa ANTE EL ABISMO DE LA CRISIS FINANCIERA
La increíble vuelta de la peseta
El alto coste de abandonar el euro ciega otra salida a la crisis
ALEJANDRO BOLAÑOS – Madrid – 27/11/2011
Vota Resultado 205 votos
Los líderes europeos se mueven a cámara lenta, la presión de los mercados acelera. La falta de una respuesta política contundente da alas a las especulaciones sobre la posibilidad de que Grecia salga del euro. La hipótesis de un retorno a la peseta desvela un camino lleno de trampas, no un atajo.
Despertador. Ducha rápida. Primer café en el bar de abajo.
Las empresas preparan planes de emergencia para la ruptura del euro
La noticia en otros webs
webs en español
en otros idiomas
«Sería la madre de todas las crisis financieras», asegura Eichengreen
La devaluación y el control del banco central son argumentos a favor
El colapso político ha roto uniones monetarias en el pasado
Hay inconvenientes económicos, legales y técnicos a crear una nueva peseta
-¿Cuánto has dicho?
-250 pesetas.
-¿Por un café con leche?
-Es lo mismo que valía antes.
Antes es apenas unos días atrás, cuando el café aún costaba 1,50 euros. Y el camarero, airado, defiende que él usa, con un mínimo redondeo a su favor, el cambio original (1 euro=166,386 pesetas), fijado a finales de 1998.
Ahora, en la obra que se representa en este café teatro, es junio de 2012. Lo inimaginable ha ocurrido: Grecia abandona el euro en abril. En poco más de un mes, el terremoto financiero se lleva por delante a Irlanda y Portugal. Italia se tambalea. Y España vuelve a la peseta.
La ruptura de la zona euro ha sido considerado un evento casi imposible, incluso por los que criticaron con dureza cómo nació. La crisis de deuda pública y la respuesta de los líderes europeos han cambiado esa percepción. A principios de este mes de noviembre, el presidente francés, Nicolás Sarkozy, y la canciller alemana, Angela Merkel, abrieron la puerta de salida a Grecia y pusieron bajo vigilancia a Italia. Este mismo miércoles, el resquebrajamiento de la moneda única fue una de las explicaciones recurrentes al mayor fracaso de una subasta de bonos alemanes en años.
«En la próxima década, es muy poco probable que ningún país salga de la zona euro». Lo escribió en 2008 Barry Eichengreen, de la Universidad de California, en uno de más afamados análisis sobre la cuestión. Para Eichengreen, el supuesto remedio sería peor que la enfermedad, incluso en países como Grecia, con una recesión brutal sobre los hombros. Sigue pensando igual, pero ahora es mucho más pesimista. «Si no dan tiempo a que las reformas generen crecimiento, será la sentencia de muerte del euro», avisó hace tres semanas. Solo Alemania y el Banco Central Europeo, según Eichengreen y buena parte de la academia, pueden comprar ese tiempo.
Salir de la zona euro tiene enormes complicaciones legales. Como ha analizado en detalle el jurista británico Charles Proctor, solo hay una vía de escape: el artículo 50 del Tratado de la Unión, que implica la salida simultánea de la UE. Y, salvo reforma de los tratados, no hay manera de expulsar a un socio de la zona euro. Contra el muro jurídico, la evidencia histórica: las uniones monetarias pueden romperse (el imperio astrohúngaro, URSS, Yugoslavia o en EE UU durante la Guerra de Secesión), aunque casi siempre como consecuencia de un colapso económico y político.
Aunque son voces minoritarias, hay algunos analistas que defienden que salir del euro tiene más ventajas que inconvenientes. Un informe de la consultora Capital Economics sostiene que, para Irlanda, Grecia, Portugal, Italia o España, es mejor volver a monedas nacionales y recuperar el control de la política monetaria. Eso permitiría devaluar el valor de la moneda y utilizar el banco central para imprimir dinero y comprar deuda pública si fuese necesario. Con la moneda mucho más barata, el sector exterior es el gran beneficiado. La contrapartida, una caída fulgurante de la demanda interna, sería compensada en poco tiempo por el tirón de exportaciones y turismo.
Despertador. Ducha rápida. Desayuno en el bar.
-Son 420 pesetas.
-¡Madre mía! ¿por un café?
Junio de 2012. La peseta se depreció un 40% en cuanto vuelve a cotizar. Las reservas de turistas extranjeros en los hoteles se disparan. El PIB cae a plomo, el paro llega al 23%.
Los expertos de UBS, Citigroup o Rabobank calculan que, de ser reintroducidas, la peseta, el dracma o la lira podrían depreciarse entre un 40% y un 60% frente al euro. Los servicios de estudios de la banca coinciden en considerar cualquier salida del euro «un escenario catastrófico», en palabras de Stephane Deo, de UBS.
La inmensa mayoría de estos estudios comparten argumentos con el trabajo de Eichengreen. Al más leve indicio de que se prepara la reintroducción de la peseta, particulares y empresas empezarían a retirar sus ahorros en euros de la banca española. Hay dos razones: los euros que se salven de convertirse de forma obligada en pesetas no pierden valor con la inevitable depreciación. Y mantener ese valor es importante para pagar las deudas que sigan contabilizadas en euros.
El resultado sería una quiebra generalizada del sistema bancario por la retirada masiva de depósitos. Miles de empresas cerrarían. Las ventajas competitivas de la devaluación se esfumarían con el repunte de la inflación y los aranceles a las exportaciones que fijaría el resto de la UE. La interconexión con la banca europea garantiza un rápido contagio. Sería «la madre de todas las crisis financieras», tal y como la bautizó Eichengreen.
El temor no es infundado: en dos años, los depósitos en bancos griegos han caído un 23%. Solo una reconversión sorpresiva y exprés permitiría limitar los daños. Eichengreen cree que eso es imposible: la salida del euro tiene que negociarse con el resto de la UE ; la reintroducción de una moneda obliga a un sinfín de preparativos técnicos. Son procesos largos que darían un estruendoso pistoletazo de salida.
En esos «escenarios catastróficos», se estima una caída del PIB tan extrema (entre el 30% y el 50%), que la convierte de inmediato en una opción indeseable. Otras aproximaciones teóricas a algo sobre lo que no hay precedentes válidos, limitan los daños, todavía muy cuantiosos.
Despertador. Suena I got you, de Sonny & Cher. Bar.
-Son 2,5 europesetas.
-¿Me estás vacilando?
Junio de 2012. El sábado, el Consejo Europeo aprueba por sorpresa la salida de España de la UE. Ese mismo día, se aprueba una norma que prohíbe retirar más de 100 euros a la semana de las cuentas bancarias. Ya está puesto el corralito. El domingo se establece un nuevo tipo de cambio: 1 euro=1 nueva peseta. El lunes, en bancos, cajeros y todo tipo de oficinas oficiales se sellan los billetes de euros para ser usados como nuevas pesetas hasta que estas se fabriquen. Un billete de 20 euros pasa a ser un billete de 20 nuevas pesetas o europesetas. La nueva moneda se deprecia un 40% en cuanto cotiza en el mercado.
Eric Dor, de la Universidad de Lille, propone en su Manual para salir de la zona euro, publicado en octubre, utilizar los billetes de euro para sortear los problemas técnicos de reintroducir una moneda. El corralito, al que Argentina dio celebridad en 2001, podría evitar la retirada masiva de depósitos, aún a costa de una enorme injusticia social y un parón económico en toda regla.
Para una negociación exprés en la UE no hay precedentes, ni teorías convincentes.
Otro argumento que rebaja un par de grados las «inasumibles» desventajas de salir del euro es el tratamiento de la deuda. Un reciente informe del banco de inversión Nomura establece que préstamos hipotecarios, créditos a empresas del país y la inmensa mayoría de la deuda pública podría reconvertirse a la nueva moneda. En el caso de los créditos internacionales de bancos y empresas, la cuestión es menos clara.
– ¿Lo de siempre?
Junio de 2012. En la tele del bar informan de otra cumbre europea. Se desbloquea el crédito a Grecia. Los bancos aceptan una quita similar a la griega (el 60% de la deuda pública) en Irlanda y Portugal. Se apoya la ampliación de recursos en el FMI, que contribuye con 200.000 millones al fondo de rescates. El fondo y el BCE compran bonos italianos y españoles. El paro en España crece, los ajustes presupuestarios también. El café vale 1,5 euros.
-Mejor ponme tila-. Telón.
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