SIETE GUERRAS PODRÍAN ABATIR AL PLANETA EN EL FUTURO PRÓXIMO

By admin 13 años ago

El reciente recrudecimiento de las tensiones en la región de Medio Oriente, las ambiciones acrecientes y la crisis financiera aumentan las posibilidades de nuevos conflictos armados. El sitio ruso rbc.ru junto con expertos militares y politólogos identificaron los focos de siete posibles guerras en un futuro cercano.

1. Guerra contra Irán

Uno de los problemas clave de la política internacional, que, según los expertos, está a punto de provocar el estallido de las operaciones militares a gran escala se relaciona con el programa nuclear de Irán.

El jefe del Centro de Pronóstico Militar, Anatoli Tsyganok, cree que una solución militar al problema nuclear de Irán «por parte de los estadounidenses, los israelíes o de su esfuerzo conjunto» es el escenario más probable para el futuro cercano.

Sin embargo, según algunos expertos, una supuesta «conspiración» de la República Islámica es solo un pretexto para el estallido del conflicto.

«La razón principal para desencadenar una guerra contra Irán es liquidar el centro de la consolidación del mundo islámico, que representa Irán. Y el centro es estrictamente antioccidental, que bajo ciertas condiciones podría consolidar alrededor países islámicos», opinó el doctor en ciencias militares, Konstantín Sivkov.

2. Una guerra en Medio Oriente

Medio Oriente se parece cada vez más a un barril de pólvora que puede estallar en cualquier momento. «Es difícil predecir qué y dónde… El nivel de preparación para este proceso es muy alto, por lo que desde el Atlántico africano -Mauritania y Marruecos- a las fronteras del subcontinente indio, en el próximo par de años puede ocurrir todo», dijo el jefe del Instituto del Medio Oriente, Evgueni Satanovski.

El primer conflicto real puede ocurrir en Siria, donde en marzo pasado comenzaron disturbios en línea con la «primavera árabe». Los expertos indican que en un año electoral, EE. UU. no va a interferir en el conflicto sirio. Sin embargo, no descarta la ayuda a la oposición de Siria en forma de dinero y armas.

3. China se prepara para atacar

La consolidación de las posiciones económicas y políticas deChina también figura como uno de los posibles escenarios para futuras operaciones militares. Los potenciales adversarios del gigante asiático son por ejemplo Vietnam, Taiwán, Estados Unidos, la India e incluso Rusia, cuyo territorio oriental escasamente poblado es un sabroso bocado para el país asiático.

El rápido desarrollo de China crea muchos problemas para el país, tanto demográficos como económicos y ecológicos. Es posible que la única manera de evitar una grave crisis para Pekín sea la expansión militar.

Los expertos destacan que la guerra más probable es entre EE. UU. y China.

4. Una Corea contra otra Corea

Otro antiguo foco de tensión es Península de Corea, donde desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial se observa una confrontación entre los dos países, con ideologías diferentes, que tiene todas las posibilidades para entrar en una fase de conflicto armado. Aunque en febrero del año pasado trataron de sentarse a la mesa de negociaciones, la relación entre ellos no se puede calificar de buena vecindad.

Un argumento importante en el conflicto coreano son las armas nucleares que posee Corea del Norte.

5. Sobre las ruinas de la Unión Soviética

Los expertos predicen un futuro inquietante en el territorio de la antigua Unión Soviética. En el centro de las tensiones se destaca un tema de larga data: el conflicto entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán deNagorno-Karabaj.

Además las actuales relaciones entre Tayikistán y Uzbekistán causan preocupaciones a la luz de la colocación de minas fronterizas, problemas de tránsito de mercancías y la controversia en torno a la central hidroeléctrica Rogunskaya.

6. Batalla de los tuaregs

Según los expertos, en un futuro próximo, los países africanos mantendrán de los puntos más calientes en el mapa mundial.

La principal causa de grandes conflictos en el continente será la rebelión de tuaregs. Se trata de una tribu nómade que desde hace años lucha por su propio Estado, muchos rebeldes han servido en unidades de elite de Muammar Gaddafi.

Otra causa de grave conflicto será la lucha por los depósitos de uranio que pertenecen a los franceses y chinos y que fueron tomados por los tuaregs.

Entre los principales focos de tensión figuran Libia, Sudán, Eritrea y Etiopía pero se descarta que un levantamiento pueda estallar «en cualquier lugar y en cualquier momento»

7. La tercera guerra mundial

El término «tercera guerra mundial» no ha quedado en el ámbito de la «ficción», afirman los expertos. En ese sentido destacan que el conflicto podría originarse por la crisis financiera mundial y se enfrentarán coaliciones formadas sobre la base de preferencias de los países acerca del orden mundial: un modelo de dominio de los países desarrollados y  un modelo de un mundo multipolar.

La primera coalición, según los expertos, será liderada por la OTAN bajo los auspicios de Estados Unidos, el segundo aún no se ha establecido. Sin embargo, el doctor de ciencias militares K. Sivkov cree que «como un prototipo de tal unión podría servir la Organización de Cooperación de Shanghái (SCO) o la Organización del Tratado de Seguridad Colectiva (OTSC)».

Los expertos señalan que la tercera guerra mundial se convertirá en una plataforma de exposición de los nuevos tipos de armas que no hayan sido utilizadas o han sido prohibidas, incluidas las armas de destrucción masiva.

Si se desata, afectará a una gran proporción de la población del mundo, cubriendo casi todos los continentes, océanos y mares. «Por fin se podría cubrir el período comprendido entre 6 y 7 a 25 y 30 años. En las hostilidades pueden participar más de 100 millones de personas de ambas partes. La pérdida demográfica total de la población mundial podría ser superior a varios cientos de millones de personas», predice Sivkov.

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